Question 7
What if…? Simulate the debt’s path
Choose your assumptions and see where the debt goes by 2040. The calculation starts from 2025, when debt stood at 115.6% of GDP, and follows a simple rule: every year, debt grows by the interest and the deficit excluding interest, and is compared with an economy that grows.
How does it work?A simple calculation, visible assumptions
- Starting point: the debt, the average rate paid and the deficit excluding interest in 2025 (Eurostat). The average rate moves a little closer to the borrowing rate every year, as old loans are replaced.
- Your spending and tax choices are phased in over 5 years. One point of GDP is about €30 billion a year (2025 GDP).
- The default growth and inflation are the averages of the last ten years; the default borrowing rate is the latest monthly figure.
What the simulator does not do: it ignores knock-on effects. Savings or tax rises can slow growth in the short run; higher debt can push rates up; higher inflation eventually raises rates. It is a tool to understand orders of magnitude, not a forecast.
Scenarios
Observed debtIf nothing changesYour scenario
To stop the debt rising