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Question 4

Does France meet its targets?

Since 1998, every government has sent Brussels a path for its public finances. 18 of the 27 paths we compiled promised to bring the deficit back under 3% of GDP by a given date. Of those whose deadline has passed, 5 out of 12 were met.

5 / 12promises to get back under 3% met on time
6times the date for getting back under 3% was pushed back from one programme to the next
2.2 ptof GDP: on average, the deficit forecast two years ahead was smaller than the published one

Promises and reality

The hedgehog chart

The solid line is the actual deficit. Each dotted line starts in the year a programme was presented and shows the promised path. 27 of 27 paths planned a falling deficit.

Promises are judged on the figure first published, the following spring: that is what France was assessed on at the time. The accounts have been revised since, sometimes markedly: for 2017, the deficit published in 2018 was 2.6%; today it stands at 3.4%.

Actual deficit (current figures)First published figurePromised pathEU excessive deficit procedure

Why the gaps?

Crises, fragile assumptions, targets pushed back

1

Unforeseen crises

The 2008 financial crisis and Covid in 2020 opened up deficits no forecast had anticipated.

2

Growth, a fragile assumption

A deficit forecast rests on a growth forecast: when the economy grows more slowly than expected, revenue follows, and the deficit slips.

3

Targets pushed back

From one programme to the next, the date for getting back under 3% was pushed back 6 times. The deficit has only been under 3% in these years: 1998–2001, 2005–2007, 2017–2019.

The European Union has placed France under an “excessive deficit procedure” 3 times (2003–2007, 2009–2018, since 2024).

See the 29 source documents

Forecasts read by hand from the stability programmes, then from the 2024 medium-term fiscal-structural plan and its progress reports. From 1998 to 2008 the programmes gave two growth scenarios: we use the cautious one, which the government used as its reference. For the 1998 and 2000 programmes, some years come from European Commission recommendations. Programmes giving a single year (April 2020, April 2026) are listed but not drawn.

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